Trojan Horse, Copycat, or Scapegoat? Unpacking the Refugees-Terrorism Nexus

Widespread fear that hosting refugees will mean more terrorism in host states is at the heart of “refugee crisis.” Yet, we lack rigorous evidence for such claims. This article theoretically unpacks how and under what conditions transnational refugee movements plausibly lead to different types terrorist outcomes. Combining original data with a multipronged approach involving treatment-placebo design as well instrumental variable estimation, provide systematic robust sheds new light on security implications forced migration. Our findings challenge claim heightens risk “importing” attacks against nationals countries, especially developed countries. However, these themselves are particularly prone becoming targets by natives, who driven fear. Dominant policy responses crisis raise fears suspicions therefore not only unsuitable, but potentially counterproductive.